U.S. Weighs Plan to Disrupt Iran’s Oil Trade with Naval Inspections
In a bold move to curb Iran’s oil exports, the Trump administration is reportedly considering a maritime inspection program targeting Iranian oil shipments at sea. This initiative, still under discussion, aims to delay deliveries and deter refiners from purchasing Iranian crude.
Six sources familiar with the matter told Reuters that Washington is exploring ways to stop and inspect Iranian oil tankers in critical shipping lanes, including the Malacca Strait in Asia. The goal is to disrupt Iran’s oil trade without direct confrontation, creating a chilling effect that discourages buyers from engaging with Tehran’s oil industry.
Tightening the Noose on Iran’s Economy
President Trump has revived the “maximum pressure” campaign, aiming to drive Iran’s oil exports to zero. His administration has already imposed two rounds of fresh sanctions, targeting Iran’s aging shadow fleet of oil tankers that operate outside Western insurance networks.
The proposed inspections would likely fall under the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI)—a U.S.-led framework launched in 2003 to prevent the trafficking of weapons of mass destruction. More than 100 countries have signed onto PSI, potentially allowing Washington to request assistance from allies in stopping Iranian shipments.
John Bolton, a former U.S. national security advisor, supports using PSI against Iran, arguing that Tehran relies on oil sales to fund its nuclear program and militant proxies.
However, it remains unclear whether Washington has approached allies to gauge their willingness to participate. The National Security Council has not commented on the matter.
Potential Retaliation and Market Fallout
History suggests that any U.S. action against Iranian oil shipments could provoke retaliation. In 2023, when the Biden administration tried to seize Iranian oil cargoes, Iran responded by seizing foreign oil tankers, including one chartered by Chevron Corp. These moves briefly pushed crude prices higher.
Ben Cahill, an energy expert at the University of Texas, notes that current low oil prices give Washington more flexibility to enforce stricter sanctions. If Brent crude remains below $75 per barrel, the U.S. may feel emboldened to cut Iranian exports by 750,000 bpd without causing a major price spike.
However, Iran has historically found ways to bypass sanctions, using a complex web of intermediaries and alternative shipping routes. In 2023 alone, Iran’s oil exports brought in $53 billion, with most sales going to China—a key trading partner that has resisted U.S. pressure.
The global oil market is watching closely, as any move to block Iranian oil flows could spark new geopolitical tensions and shift supply-demand dynamics.
