Trump Plans to Appoint Loyalists to Reshape U.S. Foreign Policy on China, NATO, and Ukraine

If Donald Trump were to secure a second term in office, it’s anticipated that he would likely appoint loyalists to key positions in the Pentagon, State Department, and CIA. According to nearly 20 current and former aides and diplomats, the primary allegiance of these appointees would be to Trump, affording him greater freedom than in his first presidency to implement isolationist policies and pursue his personal preferences.

This scenario could potentially result in significant changes to the U.S. stance on various issues, including the Ukraine war and trade relations with China. Additionally, it could impact federal institutions responsible for implementing and, at times, constraining foreign policy.

During his term from 2017 to 2021, Donald Trump faced challenges in implementing his impulsive and erratic vision within the U.S. national security establishment.

Trump was often frustrated with top officials who resisted, delayed, or persuaded him against certain proposals. For instance, former Defense Secretary Mark Esper revealed in his memoir that he twice opposed Trump’s idea of conducting missile strikes on drug cartels in Mexico, the United States’ largest trade partner. As of now, the former president has not provided any comments on these revelations.

“President Trump realized that personnel is policy,” said Robert O’Brien, Trump’s fourth and final national security adviser. “At the outset of his administration, a lot of people were interested in implementing their policies, not the president’s policies.”

The presence of more loyalists in key positions would potentially enable Donald Trump to advance his foreign policy priorities more swiftly and efficiently than he experienced during his previous term in office. This strategic placement of loyalists could facilitate the implementation of Trump’s preferred policies and streamline decision-making processes in key areas such as national security and foreign affairs.

During his current campaign, Trump has proposed deploying U.S. Special Forces against Mexican cartels, a move unlikely to receive approval from the Mexican government. If Trump regains power, he is expected to swiftly reduce defense aid to Europe and further diminish economic ties with China, according to his aides.

O’Brien, a key foreign policy adviser to Trump, mentioned that imposing trade tariffs on NATO countries failing to meet their defense spending commitments could be considered in a second term. The Trump campaign declined to comment on these plans.

In contrast to the 2016 election, Trump has built a stable of trusted advisers with significant foreign policy experience, including John Ratcliffe, former Director of National Intelligence, Richard Grenell, former U.S. Ambassador to Germany, and Kash Patel, a former intelligence and defense staffer. While the specific policies of these advisers may differ, they share a common defense of Trump and concerns about excessive U.S. contributions to NATO and Ukraine.

With a strong lead in the Republican presidential nomination race, Trump’s potential return to power raises concerns among foreign capitals about his foreign policy direction. Despite Trump providing limited details on his future foreign policy, the aides suggest a more assertive and knowledgeable approach both domestically and internationally.

Eight European diplomats express doubts about Trump’s commitment to defending NATO allies and fear potential cuts in aid to Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. Diplomats continue discussions with Trump aides, seeking insights into a potential second Trump term.

“The story from there was, ‘We were not prepared (to govern), and next time it has to be different,'” the diplomat said. “When they got into the Oval Office in 2017, they didn’t know what to do with it. But this won’t happen again.”

The diplomat from a NATO member country, along with another diplomat in Washington, has communicated to their home capitals through diplomatic cables a potential “doomsday option.” In this speculative scenario, outlined among various post-election hypotheses, these diplomats suggest that if Trump fulfills his commitments to dismantle bureaucratic elements and aggressively pursue political adversaries, it could result in a weakening of America’s system of checks and balances.

“You have to explain to your capital. ‘Things might go rather well: the US keeps on rehabilitating herself’ (if Biden is re-elected),” said the diplomat, describing his mission’s view of American politics. “Then you have Trump, a mild version: a repetition of his first term with aggressive overtones. And then you have the doomsday option.”

Michael Mulroy, who served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East under Trump, indicated that the former president would probably select individuals who aligned with his isolationist approach to foreign policy and were unlikely to challenge him.

Every U.S. president possesses the authority to appoint political appointees to key positions within the federal bureaucracy, spanning the State Department, Pentagon, and the CIA.

“I think it will be based primarily on loyalty to President Trump,” Mulroy said, “a firm belief in the kind of foreign policy that he believes in, which is much more focused on the United States, much less on a kind of globalist (policy).”

In his first term, Trump experienced conflicts with his appointees at the Pentagon on various issues, including his support for a ban on transgender service members and the 2018 decision to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria.

The resignation of his first defense secretary, Jim Mattis, in 2018 highlighted significant policy differences between Mattis and Trump. While Mattis did not explicitly outline these differences, he emphasized in his resignation letter the importance of maintaining a strong alliance with NATO and other allies while keeping adversaries, such as Russia, at a distance.

Ed McMullen, Trump’s former ambassador to Switzerland and a current campaign fund-raiser in contact with the former president, acknowledged that most foreign service personnel served the president faithfully. However, he noted that Trump was mindful of the importance of selecting loyal and obedient officials for key foreign policy positions in a potential second term.

“The president is very conscious that competency and loyalty are critical to the success of the (next) administration,” he said.

According to Agenda47, the official policy site of Trump’s campaign, a potential Trump administration beyond his core circle of advisers aims to identify and remove individuals at lower levels of the national security community perceived as “rogue.” This approach would be relatively unprecedented in the United States, which traditionally maintains a non-partisan bureaucracy that serves whichever administration is in office.

Trump has expressed his intention to reinstate an executive order issued in the final months of his first term, albeit never fully implemented, that would make it easier for him to dismiss civil servants. In a document published on Agenda 47 earlier in the year, Trump outlined plans to establish a “Truth and Reconciliation Commission.

” This commission would have the task of publishing documents related to perceived “Deep State” abuses of power. Additionally, Trump proposed creating a separate “auditing” body to monitor intelligence gathering in real-time.

“The State Department, Pentagon, and National Security Establishment will be a very different place by the end of my administration,” Trump said in a policy video earlier this year.