Sinopec Predicts China’s Petroleum Consumption to Peak by 2027
China Petrochemical Corp (Sinopec) has forecasted that the country’s petroleum consumption will peak by 2027 at no more than 800 million metric tons, equivalent to 16 million barrels per day. This prediction provides a more precise timeline than last year, when Sinopec estimated a peak between 2026 and 2030.
The expected peak represents an increase from the 750 million tons consumed in 2024, which saw only the second annual decline in two decades. Sinopec’s report, released in Beijing, also outlines production projections, estimating China’s crude oil output will reach 215 million tons in 2025, with refining capacity ranging between 960 and 970 million tons annually.
Natural gas consumption in China is anticipated to peak earlier than petroleum and at higher levels than previously predicted. By 2030, consumption is expected to reach 570 billion cubic meters (bcm), plateauing at around 620 bcm between 2035 and 2040. This is a revision from last year’s forecast of 610 bcm by 2040. In 2025, natural gas consumption is projected to rise 6.6% year-on-year to 458 bcm.
Related Posts
Additionally, Sinopec revised its expectations for energy-related carbon emissions, now predicting a peak before 2030 at levels between 10.8 billion and 11.12 billion tons. This marks an upward adjustment from last year’s estimate of 10.1 billion tons within the 2026-2030 timeframe.
The updated outlook reflects Sinopec’s assessment of evolving energy trends as China balances economic growth with its decarbonization goals.
