Russian Crude Oil Exports Plunge to January Lows
Russian crude oil exports by sea continued to decline in July and averaged below 3 million barrels per day (bpd) in the four weeks to July 30, the lowest four-week average since the start of the EU embargo, tanker-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg showed on Tuesday.
Russia is estimated to have shipped out of its ports 2.98 million bpd on average in the four-week period to July 30, according to the data reported by Bloomberg’s Julian Lee. This is the lowest four-week average of Russian crude shipments since the four weeks to January 8, a month after the EU imposed the crude oil import embargo on December 5.
The latest four-week average estimate showed that Russian crude oil shipments are now over 900,000 bpd lower than the recent high from the middle of May.
For example, in the four weeks to May 12, the average volumes of Russian crude oil shipments were estimated at as high as 3.61 million bpd.
In the most recent four-week average, shipments to Asia dropped, again, as most of Russia’s customers are now predominantly in China and India. Crude exports from Russia to Asia averaged 2.66 million bpd in the four weeks to July 30, the lowest level since January this year.
Tanker-tracking data have already started to show in recent weeks that Russia’s seaborne crude oil exports were declining from the highs seen in April and May.
Russian crude oil shipments plunged to a six-month low of 3.1 million bpd in the four weeks to July 16.
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In early July, Russia said that it would cut its crude oil exports by 500,000 bpd in August in a bid to ensure a balanced market, and the reduction in exports would come from a further 500,000-bpd cut in oil production.
Vessel-monitoring data suggest that Russia has started to reduce supply to the market, which, combined with the Saudi production cut of 1 million bpd in July and August, is tightening market balances.
