Rising Sea Levels Threaten Global Oil Shipments, Think Tank Warns
Rising sea levels could severely disrupt crude oil shipments and erode energy security in import-dependent countries like China, South Korea, and Japan, as many of the world’s biggest terminals are vulnerable to flooding, researchers from the China Water Risk (CWR) think tank warned in a report released on Tuesday.
Melting ice and swelling seas caused by rising temperatures could “unleash unstoppable multi-metre sea level rises which will not only sink key oil ports and disrupt global oil trade but also swamp coastal refineries and petrochemical facilities,” the report stated.
A 2021 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimated that on current trends, average sea levels could rise by more than a metre by the end of the century, adding that a two-metre rise could not be ruled out.
Low-lying ports and bunkering facilities would be especially vulnerable to higher sea levels, according to CWR’s “stress test” of the maritime infrastructure used to export and import crude oil. The test found that 12 out of the top 15 tanker terminals were expected to be impacted by a one-metre sea level rise, including five based in Asia.
The report indicated that up to 42% of global crude oil exports from Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United States, and the United Arab Emirates were at risk, which would affect 45% of crude shipments to China, the United States, South Korea, and the Netherlands.
With Asian countries likely to be hit the hardest, the report suggested they should lead the way not only in the global transition from oil but also in improving the resilience of port infrastructure. “The infrastructure risks highlighted in our report offer unique investment opportunities,” said Debra Tan, CWR director and lead author. “We must capitalise on them and wean ourselves off oil: far from providing energy security, our oil habit could sink all our futures.”
Japan and South Korea import around three-quarters of their crude oil from ports vulnerable to one-metre sea level rises. Most of their own receiving ports could also be impacted, the report warned.
By contributing more climate-warming emissions, the ongoing growth in oil output “could end up shooting the sector in the foot,” CWR added. If temperature rises are not kept within the key threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit), the sea-level rise could reach three metres, putting even more port infrastructure at risk.
“Ironically, oil, a key component of energy security, could end up threatening the energy security of multiple countries across Asia, particularly Japan and South Korea,” the report concluded.
