OPEC+ woos Namibia as it plans to begin production from 2030.
The OPEC+ alliance, seeking to bolster its ranks after recent departures like Angola, is considering Namibia for potential membership, aiming to tap into what could become Africa’s fourth-largest oil output by the next decade, as per an African industry official and sources disclosed to Reuters.
Recent discoveries by TotalEnergies and Shell, amounting to an estimated 2.6 billion barrels, have positioned Namibia to potentially commence production around 2030.
Initially, OPEC+ is focusing on having Namibia join its Charter of Cooperation, a consortium engaged in long-term discussions regarding energy markets, according to the sources. Brazil became part of the charter in January.
Eventually, OPEC, alongside core oil exporters such as Russia, envisions Namibia becoming a full-fledged member, noted NJ Ayuk, executive chairman of the African Energy Chamber, who indicated his organization’s involvement in facilitating discussions between the parties.
Ayuk mentioned OPEC has initiated a “charm offensive,” but the outcome of these talks remains uncertain. OPEC did not provide an immediate response to inquiries. OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais previously mentioned discussions with various nations on charter membership, although Namibia wasn’t explicitly mentioned.
In February, Al Ghais met with Namibian Minister of Mines and Energy Tom Alweendo, raising the prospect of collaboration under the charter. However, Alweendo stated last March that Namibia wasn’t considering OPEC membership at present, citing the nation’s status as a non-petroleum exporting country.
Discussions between OPEC and Namibia are anticipated to resume later in April, coinciding with Al Ghais’s scheduled address at a Namibian energy conference, according to Ayuk.
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Looking ahead, Namibia’s potential oil output could reach 700,000 barrels per day by the next decade based on existing discoveries, stated Pranav Joshi of Rystad Energy. While smaller than Angola’s current output of approximately 1.1 million barrels per day, Namibia’s production figures could escalate with further exploration success.
Angola’s departure from OPEC in December 2023, due to dissatisfaction with its output ceiling from OPEC+, underscores the alliance’s fluid dynamics amidst efforts to stabilize prices through production curbs.
