OPEC+ Unlikely to Change Oil Output Policy at Aug 1 JMMC Meeting, Sources Say.
A mini OPEC+ ministerial meeting scheduled for August 1 is unlikely to recommend changes to the group’s output policy, including the plan to begin unwinding one layer of oil output cuts starting in October, according to three sources who spoke to Reuters.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, led by Russia—collectively known as OPEC+ will conduct an online joint ministerial monitoring committee meeting (JMMC) to review the market conditions.
One of the three unnamed OPEC+ sources described the meeting as a “pulse check” for the market’s health.
In 2024, oil prices have risen, with current trading around $85 a barrel, supported by Middle East conflicts and decreasing inventories. However, concerns over prolonged high-interest rates and demand have limited gains this year.
Both the Saudi government communications office and OPEC’s headquarters in Vienna did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
As of now, OPEC+ is cutting output by 5.86 million barrels per day (bpd), approximately 5.7% of global demand, through a series of agreements initiated since late 2022. During its last meeting in June, OPEC+ extended the cuts of 3.66 million bpd until the end of 2025 and prolonged the latest layer of cuts—2.2 million bpd by eight members—by three months, until the end of September 2024.
Starting from October 2024, OPEC+ plans to gradually phase out the 2.2 million bpd cuts over the course of a year, concluding in September 2025.
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Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, when asked if the market could absorb the additional volume from October, did not rule out adjustments to the agreement if necessary. “Now we have such an option (of output increase), as we said earlier, we will always evaluate the current situation,” Novak stated.
In June, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman indicated that OPEC+ could pause or reverse the production hikes if the market conditions were not favorable.
The JMMC typically meets every two months and can make policy change recommendations, which could then be discussed and ratified in a full OPEC+ ministerial meeting involving all members.
