Members of the OPEC+ alliance are expressing concerns about a potential rise in U.S. oil production if Donald Trump returns to the White House. Delegates from the group believe increased U.S. output would erode OPEC+’s market share and complicate efforts to stabilize global oil prices.

The coalition, which produces about half of the world’s oil, recently decided to delay a planned increase in output until April 2025 and extended existing supply cuts through 2026, citing weak global demand and rising production in non-OPEC+ countries, especially the United States.

Historically, OPEC has underestimated the growth of U.S. oil output, particularly since the shale oil boom propelled the United States to the position of the world’s largest producer. Currently, the U.S. accounts for one-fifth of global oil supply, a dramatic increase from just over a decade ago when production stood at around 10 million barrels per day (bpd).

A delegate from an OPEC+ member allied with the U.S. remarked that Trump’s potential return could lead to deregulation of the energy sector, boosting U.S. oil production.

“Trump’s return is good news for the oil industry, with possibly less stringent environmental policies,” the delegate said. However, they noted that increased U.S. output could harm OPEC+ efforts to maintain market balance.

OPEC+ countries, which rely heavily on oil revenues, are wary of price drops that could accompany a surge in U.S. production. The United States has already increased output by 11% from 2022 to 2024, reaching 21.6 million bpd, according to OPEC data. In contrast, OPEC+ output currently accounts for 48% of global supply, down from 55% when the group was formed in 2016.

The U.S. president-elect has campaigned on promises to lower energy prices and inflation, potentially leading to policies that encourage increased domestic production. Analysts warn that this dynamic could pose challenges for both sides.

“Rising U.S. production has reduced OPEC+’s influence in the market,” said Richard Bronze, head of geopolitics at Energy Aspects. Some industry leaders and analysts remain skeptical about a significant surge in U.S. supply, pointing to the financial discipline of shale producers and the lengthy timeline required to develop new oil fields.

Still, the prospect of higher U.S. output under Trump looms large. “The main threat to OPEC+ is increasing U.S. oil production under Trump, reducing the country’s dependence on imported oil and increasing exports,” an OPEC+ source said.

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OPEC’s latest report predicts a 2.3% increase in U.S. oil supply next year, while the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a faster rise of 3.5%. Meanwhile, global demand growth forecasts have been revised downward, adding to OPEC+’s concerns.

Despite these challenges, some argue that any potential boost in U.S. production will depend on price dynamics. “The U.S. has no spare capacity,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and former White House official. “How much the U.S. will drill depends more on decisions made in Vienna than in Washington.”

OPEC+ now faces a delicate balancing act as it navigates the evolving dynamics of global oil markets amid geopolitical shifts and economic uncertainties.