Oil Prices Surge Amid Rising Geopolitical Tensions

Oil prices experienced a dramatic spike on Monday morning, with Brent crude surging above $81 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbing toward $77 per barrel. While recent optimism surrounding potential interest rate cuts had already boosted market sentiment, it was the escalation of geopolitical tensions and supply risks that fueled the sharp rise in oil prices.

Three significant events contributed to the price surge:

1. Israel-Hezbollah Conflict Intensifies
   In a significant escalation, Israel launched a preemptive strike against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon early Sunday morning. This marked the most severe exchange of fire between the two sides since their 34-day war in 2006. Israel deployed 100 jets to target 40 sites in Lebanon, claiming they were preparing to launch missiles and rockets at Israel. In retaliation, Hezbollah fired over 340 rockets at 11 military targets in Israel and the Golan Heights. This escalation threatens to derail ceasefire talks currently taking place in Egypt.
2. Russia’s Large-Scale Attack on Ukraine
   On Sunday night and into Monday morning, Russia launched a massive coordinated missile and drone attack targeting cities and critical infrastructure across Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported that over 100 missiles and approximately 100 attack drones were launched by Russia overnight, resulting in power outages and disruptions to water supplies in several cities, including Kyiv. Russia claimed its objective was to cripple Ukraine’s critical infrastructure.
3. Libya Declares Force Majeure on Oil Production
   The Libyan government in Benghazi, which controls the majority of the country’s oilfields, declared force majeure on Monday morning, announcing the shutdown of oil production and exports. This move follows weeks of rising tensions in Libya, where efforts to oust the head of the Central Bank of Libya have led to the mobilization of armed factions on both sides.

These developments are ongoing, but they have already fueled bullish sentiment in the oil markets, setting the stage for another volatile week as the situation continues to unfold