Nigeria is missing as Africa’s hydropower installed capacity is expected to continue to grow at a combined annual growth rate of 2.5 percent from 2017 to 2023. This growth on the continent will be driven by  Ethiopia, Mozambique and Uganda, Rystad Energy research has shown.

According to Rystad, the hydropower market will continue its upward trajectory in 2022 as global capacity exceeds 1,200 gigawatts (GW) for the first time and investments climb to $36.3 billion, adding that as the energy transition gathers momentum and countries search for reliable, large-scale infrastructure projects to meet future demand, hydropower is solidifying its position as the most popular renewable energy source.

“Hydropower accounts for almost one-sixth of the world’s power generation, trailing only coal and natural gas. The industry’s contribution to power generation is nearly 60 percent higher than nuclear energy and greater than all other renewables combined, including wind, solar PV, bioenergy and geothermal. Power generated through hydropower rose slightly in 2021 to 4,414 terawatt-hours (TWh), up from 4,360 TWh in 2020, while capacity of nearly 17 GW was added in 2020, followed by another 14 GW in 2021,” Rystad said in a statement.

“Investments in the sector slowed somewhat before 2020 as other renewable sources such as wind and solar PV gained momentum, a situation exacerbated by delays to several major hydropower projects and some regions’ lack of policy changes, which also stunted growth. The industry is, however, experiencing a renaissance as countries are increasingly motivated to find suitable renewable options to decarbonize their energy supply.”

The research and data consultancy firm noted: “Most of the capacity additions until 2030 are expected to come from large-scale projects in Asia and Africa. In Africa specifically, installed capacity is expected to grow at a combined annual growth rate of 2.5 percent from 2017 to 2023, driven by Ethiopia, Mozambique and Uganda.”

Analysts estimate that Nigeria loses billions of dollars yearly in trade due to poor electricity supply in the country, which is currently  about 5,000 megawatts. According to the former president of the Nigerian Gas Association (NGA), Audrey Joe-Ezigbo, the country needs at least 200GW of electricity to industrialise.

In March 2019,  the United States Agency for International Development (USAID)  said that Nigeria has installed capacity of 12,52MW. Out of this number, 10,142MW is through thermal while 2,380MW is generated through hydro.

According to the USAID, the current access rate is 45 per cent. Rural areas have 36 per cent access rate while urban areas have 55 per cent. The report also indicated that 20 million households do not have access to electricity.

One of the power projects in the country aimed at increasing power generation capacity is the Mambilla hydropower project. Mambilla hydropower project is a 3.050MW hydroelectric facility being developed on the Dongo River near Baruf, in Kakara Village of Taraba State.

The project which is being undertaken by Nigeria’s Federal Ministry of Power,  with the help of Chinese investments, is estimated to cost $5.8 billion and expected to commence operation in 2030.

Mambilla will be Nigeria’s biggest power plant, producing approximately 4.7 billion kWh of electricity a year.

Although Mambilla hydroelectric project was originally conceived in 1972, it could advance only after 35 years when China’s Gezhouba Group awarded a contract to develop the project with 2,600MW installed capacity in 2007.

The ground survey for the project was completed in August 2010 and environmental approval was received in December 2011.

The capacity of the project was increased to 3,050MW in 2012. The project was, however, put on hold due to administrative clashes, until it received government approval in 2016. The Federal Government, through the Ministry of Power,  awarded the project development contract to a consortium of three Chinese companies including the Gezhouba Group, in November 2017.

Chinese Export Import (Exim) Bank is funding 85 percent of the estimated $5.8bn project cost, while the remaining 15 percent funding will come from the Federal Government.

The implementation of  the hydroelectric facility, which gathered momentum in 2020, has been stalled. The delay in the execution of the project may not be unconnected with the delay in releasing funds for various projects in Nigeria, including the funding of the 614km Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano gas pipeline, rail projects, among others  by Chinese lenders.