Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Expand Grip on Oil Exports Amid Sanctions Pressure.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has solidified its control over a significant portion of the nation’s oil exports, Western officials, security sources, and Iranian insiders reveal. The IRGC now oversees up to half of Iran’s oil exports, marking a sharp increase from 20% just three years ago. This revenue, estimated to generate over $50 billion annually, funds the regime and its regional proxies, including Hezbollah and Hamas.
Sanctions and Subterfuge
Despite U.S. sanctions aimed at crippling Tehran’s energy sector, Iran’s oil production has risen to its highest levels since 2018, peaking at 3.3 million barrels per day in 2023. The Guards employ a shadow fleet of tankers, front companies, and clandestine shipping networks to move crude oil, primarily to China, Iran’s largest customer.
The IRGC often offers oil at a discount compared to state-run exporters, compensating buyers for the heightened risk of dealing with a U.S.-designated terrorist organization. This strategy has allowed the IRGC to secure a significant foothold in the lucrative trade, operating with impunity despite growing international scrutiny.
A History of Resourcefulness
The IRGC’s dominance in the oil sector traces back to 2013, when the Iranian government began compensating the Guards in oil rather than cash due to budgetary constraints. Over time, the IRGC demonstrated a knack for evading sanctions, overshadowing state entities like the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC).
“The IRGC proved adept at smuggling, while the NIOC struggled with sanctions management,” said Richard Nephew, a sanctions expert and former U.S. State Department official.
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Implications for Regional Stability
Oil revenues have become a lifeline for the IRGC’s Quds Force, which directs funds to militant groups across the Middle East. According to intelligence sources, Hezbollah alone receives up to $1 billion annually from Tehran, with most of its funding tied to IRGC-managed oil sales.
Efforts to curtail these activities have intensified. The U.S. Treasury and Israel have imposed sanctions on numerous tankers linked to the IRGC’s operations, but enforcement remains challenging.
What Lies Ahead
As international sanctions evolve, Iran continues to find ways to adapt. However, the potential return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency could usher in stricter enforcement, further complicating the IRGC’s operations.
The expanding role of the IRGC in Iran’s oil exports underscores a broader challenge: reining in an organization that has entrenched itself as a key player in both Tehran’s economy and its geopolitical strategy.
