Energy Evolution is driven by hydrocarbon and renewables
In her welcome speech at the 16th Nigerian Association for Energy Economics (NAEE), held in Abuja, President of the association, Professor Yinka Omorogbe (SAN), said the topic was apt in line with energy evolution and transition.
The topic of the conference is Energy Evolution, Transition and Reform: Prospects for African Economies, which is to follow the trend of energy transition that is inevitable. She stated thus: “When we chose the name, there was discussion as to whether we’re talking about evolution and transition, is it actually the same and I said no, it’s not the same. Evolution and transition are not the same.”
The NAEE President explained that evolution is a gradual natural shift that is occurring in the earth’s atmosphere as long as it exists. This was prior to industrial revolution that took place in the 18th century primarily in the West and occurred prior to the emergence of coal as a vehicle for massive amounts of engines that were needed to drive the industry and industrialization.
“With this massive vast of hydrocarbons into the atmosphere, problems started but we didn’t know it. Then we had coal and crude oil which were much efficient and cleaner, including natural gas. There were different other industrial revolutions, which have been driven by hydrocarbons. The gradual evolutionary process was disrupted resulting to present climate crises.”
The natural shift exists but to deal with this evolution, there has to be transition. The word transition is used in different ways globally, but in Nigeria, people don’t know how transition is used.
Transition is never an evolutionary shift but a strategic activity. Evolution cannot be compared with transition because both stand on parallel lines. While transition is a shift that would never occur if nature was left at its own pace.
This connotes a paradigm shift, planned and geared towards structural changes that will not evolve without strategic activity. This is the focus and global solution is intentionally transitional. The emphasis is on a significant change rectification of past damage to the environment since it is humanly possible.
Professor Omorogbe stated clearly that in the evolution of energy, there’s more natural gas and hydrocarbons that are being used as new energy source. Hydrogen is also on the rise. The industrial evolution has been powered by crude oil and natural gas.
Inevitability of renewables is on the scene and fourth industrial revolution emerging. In terms of globalization, looking at shifts that are occurring in the developed world, energy underlining shift should not be jettisoned. It’s not primitive but strong energy that is needed driven by hydrocarbon and renewable energy.
“Where there is a massive vast of energy that is needed, there is a push for it to be driven by green hydrogen.”
Present state of Nigeria
Where is Nigeria now? The country is in the second industrial revolution because it does not have sufficient energy.
Nigeria electricity generation drops 37% to 2,649.9 Megawatts (MW) from 4207 MW with a grid that covers half the country powered by natural gas. The country has installed capacity and does not get 50% of it. Unfortunately, 50% of Nigerians have no access to electricity. The country is in a dismal position.
In the advance world, net zero is a reality; they are driving electricity from non-fossil fuels by 2040. Green energy, hydrogen and hydropower with new energy technologies are being driven with a lot of research. They’re working on electric vehicles (EVs) as fast as possible.
In other climes, they’re working towards the global energy sector based largely on renewables with solar as the single largest source of power which is a possibility.
According to NAEE President, Nigeria has no alternative to transition. “But the transition for us has got to improve the supply of energy to power the industrial revolution that is needed and put us on the path of economic and sustainable development.”
Nigeria should focus on transitions. In a quote from the OPEC, Secretary General in 2016, he urged the world to emphasise on energy transitions. “It has to be approved as I firmly believe that each nation and peoples have their own energy transition. The capacities and national circumstances of developing countries must be taken into consideration, which is true.”
OPEC is involved in this initiative at the same time developing hydrocarbons for funding renewable energy across the world.
Energy Mix of other countries
India with 1.2 billion population has more than 4 million MW installed capacity. It is using a lot of coal with 50% and has renewables while working towards 2030 to attain 50%.
Norway is almost entirely renewable energy which account for 98% of generation and hydro is dominant source at 92%. It has a lot of gas and 69 times its annual consumption.
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China is growing its renewables with abundant gas and hydrocarbon. The country has nuclear with 7% non-hydro renewables, 8% hydro power. These are mixes with different plans to utilize resources to enhance sustainability.
For Nigeria, the NAEE President said, the country has to choose its own pathway while the conference paves way to proffer solutions that will aid the energy transition for the country and other African countries hence, “if we’re developing natural gas or oil, the time is now because by the time we look at what is happening all over the world, our normal character of waiting is over because if we continue in such tradition, so many things will pass us by.”
