Anticipated Decline in Africa’s Oil Production Forecasted for the Coming Year
According to a recent report by the African Energy Chamber (AEC), Africa’s oil production is anticipated to experience a gradual decline in 2024.
The Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber, NJ Ayuk, has predicted a “relative calm” in the global oil market for the rest of 2023, as per the chamber’s forecasts.
“For now, the wild extremes of the pandemic era appear to be behind us,” Ayuk said, but noted that declining oil production in Africa is not welcome news for the African oil-producing nations.
“The State of African Energy 2024 Outlook” report indicates that oil production in Africa is expected to remain relatively stable at approximately 6.77 million barrels per day (bpd) from 2023 to 2024.
However, on a month-to-month basis, there is a less optimistic outlook, with production decreasing from 6.9 million bpd in January 2024 to around 6.62 million bpd in December 2024, as stated by the African Energy Chamber.
The primary contributors to Africa’s oil and condensates production are OPEC member nations such as Nigeria, Libya, Algeria, and Angola, with Nigeria being the largest producer, contributing slightly over a fifth of the combined total annual volumes of these countries.
Despite this, the report emphasizes the need for Africa’s OPEC producers, including Nigeria, to address production challenges stemming from pipeline vandalism, militant activities, declining legacy fields, and a shortage of new start-ups. The African Energy Chamber suggests that these issues have led to production outages.
In response to challenges in Nigeria’s Niger Delta region, the state-run NNPC recently launched a new grade of crude oil called Nembe. This initiative aims to counter the impact of long-standing thefts and attacks in the region.
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“We should be seizing every opportunity to capitalize on our oil and gas resources,” the executive chairman of the African Energy Chamber noted.
“Every drop of oil extracted is a pathway to economic growth — revenue that can fund social programs, infrastructure development, and much-needed technology transfers from the international oil companies (IOCs) that invest in Africa,” Ayuk said.
